Global investment firm VanEck expects the price of ETH to reach $11,800 by 2030, given that Ethereum achieves $51 billion in annual revenue in that year.

The report, written by VanEck’s digital assets research head Matthew Sigel and its digital assets senior investment analyst Patrick Bush, considers Ethereum's transaction fees, MEV, and “Security as a Service" to reach the conclusion. 

The duo said their price prediction assumes that Ethereum takes a 70% market share among smart contract protocols. They noted:

"The base of our projections comes from the smart contract platform “market capture.” This is the percentage of each business category’s economic activity that we believe will utilize, be derived from, or reside on public smart contract platforms like Ethereum"

They recognized finance, banking and payments, metaverse, social and gaming, and infrastructure as their main categories, adding that they expect 5%, 20%, and 10% of finance, metaverse/media, and tech infrastructure activity, respectively, will move on-chain. 

The authors also assumed a take rate on the business economic activity derived from blockchain deployment to simplify the user experience.

They used gas costs users pay to interact with an on-chain business's smart contracts to determine the breakdown ratio of revenues between Ethereum and the businesses.